Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
